Crude Oil Price Movements
In October, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value increased by $1.53/b, m-o-m, to average $112.12/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $6.32/b, m-o-m, to average $108.34/b in October. The NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $1.25/b, m-o-m, to average $96.94/b. In contrast, the GME Oman front-month contract dropped by $3.24/b, m-o-m, to average $111.29/b. The forward curves of the three major crude futures benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman – remained in backwardation in October, while prompt market structures flattened slightly amid improving crude availability. Hedge funds and other money managers increased their combined bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI futures and options contracts in October, although positioning diverged between the two contracts. The increase in net long positions was driven by short covering and fresh long buying concentrated entirely in the ICE Brent contract.
World Economy
Global economic growth forecast is revised slightly up to 3.1% for 2026, while the 2027 forecast remains unchanged at 3.2%. US economic growth forecasts are revised up to 2.3% for 2026 and 2.1% for 2027. In the Eurozone, economic growth forecasts are revised up to 1% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2026 is revised up to 0.8% but remains unchanged at 0.8% for 2027. China’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 4.6% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027. India’s economic growth forecasts are revised up to 7.3% for 2026 and 6.8% for 2027. Brazil’s economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2% for 2026, while the 2027 forecast is revised slightly down to 2.1%. Russia’s economic growth forecast is revised slightly to 1% for 2026, but the 2027 forecast remains unchanged at 1.5%.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d in 2026, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD oil demand is forecast to ease by about 0.2 mb/d, while the non-OECD oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.4 mb/d. Global oil demand in 2027 is forecast to grow by about 2.6 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.5 mb/d, while the non-OECD oil demand is forecast to grow by about 2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina. In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, also unchanged from last month’s assessment. This growth will mainly be driven by Qatar, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are expected to increase by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 8.7 mb/d in 2026. Further growth of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, is forecast for 2027, to average about 8.9 mb/d. In October, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 2.04 mb/d, m-o-m, to average about 41.23 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across the main trading hubs in October. On the US Gulf Coast (USGC), margins retreated from the high levels registered in September, as losses in gasoline and gasoil outweighed improvements in jet/kerosene and fuel oil crack spreads. In Rotterdam, margins recorded the largest decline, mainly reflecting weaker gasoline and gasoil cracks, while jet/kerosene continued to provide support. In Singapore, reported refining margins against Oman remained negative and declined further, although most product crack spreads against Dubai improved.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates surged in October, with record VLCC rates driving Suezmax and Aframax rates higher. The return of disrupted volumes, ongoing trade dislocations, export inefficiencies and longer voyages kept tanker availability constrained. VLCC rates stood at more than ten times their levels from a year ago. On the Middle East-to-East route, VLCC spot freight rates rose by 26%, m-o-m, in October, while rates on the West Africa-to-East route increased by 56%, m-o-m, building on sharply higher gains from the month before. Suezmax spot freight rates experienced the largest increase, m-o-m, of the three major vessel classes. On the USGC-to-Europe route, Suezmax rates rose by 139%, m-o-m. Compared to the same period last year, spot freight rates were seven times higher. Aframax rates rose further in October, although to a lesser degree than the larger classes. On the Intra-Med route, Aframax spot freight rates gained 67%, m-o-m, more than four times higher than their levels a year ago. The clean tanker market began to see some pressure from the high rates on the crude transport side. On average, clean rates rose 51%, m-o-m, with West of Suez rates catching to the gains seen last month in the East of Suez.
Crude and Refined Product Trade
US crude imports followed seasonal patterns, declining in October to average 6.1 mb/d. US crude exports began to pick up, averaging 4.3 mb/d, on higher flows to Japan. Product exports declined from high levels on lower outflows of distillate fuel oil. Preliminary estimates for September show crude imports into OECD Europe fell back to the five-year range due to decreased flows via the Suez, while crude exports remained steady. Product imports continued to be soft, well below the five-year range, despite a strong jump in diesel inflows. Japan’s crude imports fell sharply, amid renewed trade flow disruptions in September, averaging 1.9 mb/d compared with 2.5 mb/d the month before. Product exports declined despite a jump in gasoil exports but were still close to the five-year average. In China, crude imports averaged 9.1 mb/d in September, slightly higher m-o-m. Product exports surged, boosted by strong diesel and fuel oil exports. Regional tightness in these products and fresh export quotas supported higher outflows. Crude imports into India set a new record high in September at 5.4 mb/d as refiners enjoyed strong domestic and international demand for their products. Product exports improved, with higher outflows of diesel and other products leading gains.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary September 2026 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories decreased by 14.6 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,811 mb. At this level, OECD commercial stocks were 57.3 mb lower, y-o-y, 4.5 mb above the latest five-year average, and 156.2 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks increased by 0.1 mb, while product stocks decreased by 14.7 mb, m-o-m. OECD commercial crude oil stocks stood at 1,353 mb. This was 23.8 mb higher, y-o-y, 29.7 mb above the latest five-year average and 82.1 mb below the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,458 mb in September. This was 81.1 mb lower, y-o-y, 25.2 mb below the latest five-year average and 74.1 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks decreased in September by 0.3 days, m-o-m, to 60.3 days. This was 1.4 days lower, y-o-y, 0.2 days below the latest five-year average, and 2.1 days below the 2015– 2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) remains unchanged from last month’s assessment at 42.1 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower, y-o-y. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains unchanged from last month’s assessment at 43.9 mb/d, which is about 1.8 mb/d higher, y-o-y.