Crude Oil Price Movements
In September, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value increased by $24.15/b, m-o-m, to average $110.59/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $13.94/b, m-o-m, to average $102.02/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $13.24/b, m-o-m, to average $95.69/b. The GME Oman front-month contract increased by $26.65/b, m-o-m, to average $114.53/b. The forward curves of the three major crude futures benchmarks steepened in September. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, disruptions to regional crude flows, and strong demand for prompt barrels pushed front-month prices higher relative to forward prices. Hedge funds and other money managers increased their combined ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI net long positions in the first half of September as crude prices rallied and supply concerns intensified but then reduced them in the second half of the month.
World Economy
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 2.2% for 2026 and 2% for 2027. In the Eurozone, the economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 0.8% for 2026 and 1% for 2027. Japan’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 0.7% for 2026 and 0.8% for 2027. China's economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 4.6% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027. India’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 2% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027. Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 1.1% for 2026, and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d in 2026, y-o-y, following a slight downward revision from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to ease by about 0.2 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.4 mb/d. Global oil demand in 2027 is forecast to grow by about 2.6 mb/d, y-o-y, following an upward revision from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.5 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina. In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, also unchanged from last month’s assessment. This growth will mainly be driven by Qatar, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are expected to increase by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 8.8 mb/d in 2026. Further growth of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, is forecast for 2027, to average about 8.9 mb/d. In September, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 0.90 mb/d, m-o-m, to average about 39.07 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refining margins showed a mixed performance across the main trading hubs in September. In the US Gulf Coast (USGC), margins extended their upward trend, supported by stronger transportation fuel crack spreads. Middle distillates were particularly strong due to a tight market in the Atlantic Basin, firm export demand, and lower supply due to refinery maintenance in the Northern Hemisphere. In Rotterdam, margins declined as weakness at the top and bottom of the barrel more than offset gains in middle distillates. In Singapore, margins fell sharply, moving into negative territory pressured by higher feedstock prices and freight costs
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates surged in September across all vessel classes and continued moving higher in the early days of October. The return of disrupted flows, ongoing trade dislocations, export inefficiencies, industry consolidation, and increased voyage lengths tightened tanker availability. VLCC rates nearly doubled on all monitored routes in September, except on the West Africa-to-East route where they were closer to tripling. On the Middle East-to-East route, VLCC spot freight rates were up 88%, m-o-m, while rates on the West Africa-to-East route rose 142%, m-o-m. Suezmax spot freight rates benefited from a spillover demand from the VLCC sector, with the USGC-to-Europe route up 53%, m-o-m. Aframax rates also moved higher, with the Intra-Med route up 87%, m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates showed considerable strength East of Suez, where rates rose 54% on average, m-o-m, while West of Suez spot rates increased by 12%, m-o-m.
Crude and Refined Product Trade
US crude imports returned to seasonal levels in September, dropping m-o-m to 6.3 mb/d amid lower inflows from Canada and Latin America. Crude exports were broadly flat, m-o-m, as lower flows to Europe offset a recovery in flows to South Korea to remain at 3.8 mb/d. US product exports fell from record levels to average a still high 7.8 mb/d, amid lower diesel outflows. In August, OECD Europe crude imports rose to stand above the five-year range, supported by higher inflows from Saudi Arabia, Libya and Nigeria. Crude exports from the region remained steady, m-o-m. Japan’s crude imports rose to 2.5 mb/d in August, moving in line with the five-year average, recovering from record lows in April and May. Product exports fell back from strong levels, m-o-m, as gasoil outflows dropped from elevated levels due to a softer regional supply. China’s crude imports were also higher, m-o-m, averaging 9.0 mb/d in August as refinery runs increased ahead of the Golden Week holiday. Product exports extended the previous month’s gains to average 1.5 mb/d, as refiners sought to maximize jet fuel outflows. India’s crude imports declined from elevated levels to average 4.5 mb/d in August. Product imports were boosted, m-o-m, by a return of LPG inflows. India’s product exports fell back from high levels in the previous month, amid declines in diesel oil and naphtha.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August 2026 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories increased by 36.6 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,808 mb. At this level, OECD commercial stocks were 57.5 mb lower, y-o-y, 8.8 mb below the latest five-year average, and 177.2 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks increased by 29.5 mb and product stocks increased by 7.1 mb, m-o-m. OECD commercial crude oil stocks stood at 1,351 mb. This was 19.3 mb higher, y-o-y, 22.0 mb above the latest five-year average and 96.8 mb below the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,458 mb in August. This was 76.8 mb lower, y-o-y, 30.8 mb below the latest five-year average and 80.4 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks increased in August by 1 day, m-o-m, to 60.4 days. This was 1.1 days lower, y-o-y, 0.5 days below the latest five-year average, and 2.7 days below the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
The demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) in 2026 is revised down from last month’s assessment to 42.1 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2025 level. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 is revised up from last month’s assessment to 43.9 mb/d, which is about 1.8 mb/d above the 2026 forecast.