Goldman Sachs has raised its oil-price outlook as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are expected to persist into 2027. The bank raised its December 2026 Brent forecast by $5 to $85/bbl and its 2027 average forecast from $75 to $80/bbl. It also estimates WTI at $80/bbl for December 2026 and $75/bbl on average in 2027.
For the next three months, Goldman expects the crude market to remain relatively resilient, partly because the peak summer-demand period has passed. However, refined products are much tighter, with reduced supplies from the Persian Gulf, Russia and China creating greater risks for diesel, gasoline and jet fuel.
For the next six months, the main variable is the pace of recovery in Gulf production and shipping through Hormuz. Goldman expects Middle East supply to gradually recover, but says the risks are tilted to the upside. If Gulf output in 2027 remains around 4 million bpd below pre-war levels, Brent could exceed $120/bbl. Conversely, if Gulf production recovers to 1 million bpd above pre-war levels, Brent could fall into the $60s in 2027.
Key takeaway: Goldman sees a relatively resilient crude market but a much tighter refined-products market. Hormuz disruption, Gulf production recovery and inventories will be the main oil-price drivers over the coming 3–6 months, with the base-case Brent outlook around $85/bbl at end-2026 and $80/bbl on average in 2027.