Iraq has formally asked OPEC to raise its production baseline to 6 million bpd, substantially above its current OPEC+ ceiling of 4.431 million bpd for September and October. The request comes as OPEC conducts an external review of members’ production capacities, with results expected by the end of September and consideration by oil ministers in November.
Iraq’s longer-term ambitions are even higher. Officials have discussed reaching 5 million bpd after the Iran conflict and approximately 10 million bpd by 2030. Baghdad has also indicated that it could reconsider its OPEC membership if it does not receive a sufficiently high production baseline.
However, Iraq’s current output is well below its requested level. The country produced an estimated 2.98 million bpd in August, according to a Bloomberg survey, due in part to disruptions to exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates Iraq’s sustainable production capacity at around 4.9 million bpd, leaving a significant gap with Baghdad’s requested 6 million bpd baseline. Whether OPEC accepts Iraq’s request remains uncertain.
A higher baseline could also affect Iraq’s negotiations with international oil companies and the broader balance of production quotas within OPEC.