OPEC+ is expected to pause further oil production increases for three months from October after completing the planned rollback of voluntary output cuts in September, according to Reuters sources. The pause would leave around 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of OPEC+-wide production cuts in place while the group negotiates new production quotas for 2027.
The seven core producers—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman—are still expected to approve a 188,000 bpd production target increase for September at their August 2 meeting, completing the phased reversal of the 2023 voluntary cuts.
Future output policy will depend on several factors, including the evolution of the Middle East conflict, a review of members' maximum sustainable production capacity, and the outlook for the global oil market. Some members, including Iraq, are seeking higher production quotas, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the oil market could face a surplus in 2027 if flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalize.