Crude Oil Price Movements
In June, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $24.80/b, m-o-m, to average $89.75/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract fell in June by $19.28/b, m-o-m, to average $84.43/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract declined by $16.72/b, m-o-m, to average $81.79/b. The GME Oman front-month contract dropped by $22.85/b, m-o-m, to $79.25/b. The Brent-WTI futures spread narrowed by $2.56/b, m-o-m, to average at a premium of $2.64/b in June. The structure of oil prices remained in backwardation, supported by firm market fundamentals and expectations of strengthening demand during the summer season. Hedge funds and other money managers closed a large volume of speculative bullish positions for the second consecutive month, betting on a rapid easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and improving supply conditions. Between late May and the week of 30 June, hedge funds and other money managers sold an equivalent of 245 mb across Brent and WTI futures and options.
World Economy
The global economic growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged at a healthy 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively. The US economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 2.2% for 2026 and 2% for 2027. In the Eurozone, the economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 1% for 2026 and 1.2% for 2027. Japan’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 0.8% for 2026 and 0.9% for 2027. The economic growth forecasts for China remain unchanged at 4.6% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027. India’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027. Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand is forecast to grow by a healthy 0.8 mb/d in 2026, y-o-y, following a slight downward revision from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 40 tb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.74 mb/d. Global oil demand in 2027 is forecast to grow by about 1.9 mb/d, y-o-y, following an upward revision from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.3 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.7 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina. In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, also unchanged from last month’s assessment. This growth will mainly be driven by Qatar, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to increase by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 8.8 mb/d in 2026. Additional growth of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, is forecast for 2027, to average about 8.9 mb/d. In June, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by about 3 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 36.28 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refining margins extended their downward trend on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and in Rotterdam, pressured by lower product prices and a drop in offline capacity in the Atlantic Basin. In Singapore, margins reversed trends and rose, driven by improved crude arrivals into the region, lower feedstock prices, and diminished concerns about crude supply disruptions in June. Although a slight increase in Asian refinery runs contributed to lower product prices, the decline in crude prices was considerably more pronounced, providing a lift to refining operations despite lower product crack spreads across the barrel.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates were volatile in June, amid optimism that trade flow disruptions might ease. The moderate increase in activities was outweighed by higher tanker availability, causing VLCC rates to fall lower in the second half of the month. On the West Africa-to-East route, VLCC spot freight rates rose 10% on average in June, m-o-m, to remain at elevated levels, some 160% higher than in the same month last year. Suezmax spot freight rates also experienced volatility amid uncertainty over the return of Mideast flows and lower flows from the USGC in the first weeks of the month. On the USGC-to-Europe route, rates decreased by 9%, m-o-m, but were still 114% higher, y-o-y. Aframax spot freight rates registered more steady declines over the month, with rates falling back towards the upper range of the previous five years as supply concerns softened.
On the Mediterranean-to-Northwest Europe route, Aframax dirty spot rates declined 8%, m-o-m. Clean spot freight rates declined across all monitored routes, as spot buying was more measured amid ample tanker availability. West of Suez, clean spot rates dropped by an average of 44%, m-o-m, in June, while East of Suez rates declined by 15%, m-o-m.
Crude and Refined Product Trade
US crude imports declined further in June to average 5.4 mb/d, while crude exports continued to retreat from record-high levels to average 4.4 mb/d. US product imports fall below the five-year range, averaging 1.6 mb/d despite higher gasoline inflows. Product exports into the US fell further from April’s record high to average 7.6 mb/d, as refiners shifted gasoline flows to the domestic market. In May, crude imports into OECD Europe are estimated to have increased to an average of 8.8 mb/d. Product imports into the region partly recovered, though they remained well below the five-year average at 2.2 mb/d, driven by higher fuel oil and diesel inflows. Product exports from the region fell below the five-year average to stand at 2.1 mb/d. In Japan, crude imports partially recovered but remained well below year-ago levels, averaging 1.5 mb/d in May. Product imports, including LPG, also increased, m-o-m, averaging 735 tb/d, as naphtha imports rebounded to pre-crisis levels. Meanwhile, China's crude oil imports fell to 7.8 mb/d in May amid measures to limit the impact of trade flow disruptions. Product imports, including LPG, remained stable at low levels, averaging 1.2 mb/d, supported by a recovery in LPG inflows. Product exports out of China fell to 787 tb/d, despite a slight easing of government restrictions on exports. In India, crude imports continued to recover, increasing for the second month in a row to an average of 5.1 mb/d in May. India’s product imports recovered from historically low levels to average 814 tb/d. Product exports from India averaged 938 tb/d in May, largely supported by higher naphtha outflows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary May 2026 data shows that OECD commercial oil inventories dropped by 21.8 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,770 mb. At this level, OECD commercial stocks were 31.4 mb lower, y-o-y, 48.6 mb below the latest five-year average, and 185.8 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks decreased by 6.9 mb, while product stocks decreased by 15.0 mb, m-o-m. OECD commercial crude oil stocks stood at 1,364 mb. This was 4.3 mb higher, y-o-y, 10.9 mb below the latest five-year average, and 121.6 mb below the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,406 mb in May. This was 35.6 mb lower, y-o-y, 37.7 mb below the latest five-year average, and 64.2 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of
days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 1.3 days, m-o-m, in May, to 59.8 days. This was 0.5 days lower, y-o-y, 1.3 days below the latest five-year average, and 2.2 days below the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
The demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) in 2026 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from last month’s assessment to 42.3 mb/d, the same level as in 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 43.6 mb/d, which is about 1.2 mb/d above the 2026 forecast