The world economy is coping with the shocks caused by the Middle Eastern conflict better than expected, and the consequences through the main transmission channels - commodity prices, inflation expectations and financial conditions - are so far limited, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
However, the transmission is still in its early stages, and negative effects may still manifest themselves in the future, the IMF said in its updated World Economic Outlook Update.
The estimate of the average oil price in 2026 also continues to rise. The IMF report, prepared before the latest round of escalation around Iran, assumes that the opening of the Strait of Hormuz will begin in mid-July, and that the situation as a whole will return to its pre-war state by March 2027. A serious shortage will be avoided through further drawdowns of inventories, but it is assumed that a shortage will arise in some emerging market and transition economies that do not have accessible inventories and face strong competition from wealthier countries for available cargoes.
The IMF expects it to grow 31.8% instead of the 21.4% it forecast in April, to $89.27 per barrel. In April it was estimated at $82.22; in January at $62.13. This refers to the arithmetic average of the value of three different benchmarks - Brent, WTI and Dubai.
According to the IMF, the price decline will be more significant in 2027 than previously expected - 11.8% instead of 7.6% to $78.7 ($75.97 in the April forecast and $62.17 in the January forecast).
The IMF left unchanged its April forecast for Russian economic growth in 2026 and 2027 - 1.1% annually. The IMF previously raised its estimate of Russian GDP growth for 2026 from 0.8% to 1.1% after having lowered it by 0.2 percentage points in January compared to the October forecast.
The IMF's estimate for the current year is above the forecast of the Russian Economic Development Ministry. In May, the ministry lowered its forecast for Russian GDP growth to 0.4% from 1.3% in the September version of the forecast. At the same time, the IMF estimate falls within the range of the Central Bank of Russia's forecast of 0.5%-1.5%.
The estimate for 2027 of 1.1% is lower than the expectations of both the CBR (with a range of 1.5%-2.5%) and the Economic Development Ministry (1.4%).