Iran has started preliminary discussions with Japanese companies about resuming crude oil exports under a 60-day U.S. sanctions waiver that expires on August 21.
Three Japanese buyers are reportedly assessing potential purchases, marking the first possible imports from Iran since 2019. However, any deals depend on an extension of the U.S. waiver due to shipping times and greater clarity on maritime security and insurance.
Iran's National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has contacted former customers, including Japan, encouraging them to prepare for renewed imports if a permanent Iran-U.S. agreement leads to the lifting of sanctions. Despite the diplomatic progress, significant obstacles remain, including uncertainty over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, recent security incidents, the presence of sea mines, and difficulties obtaining tanker insurance.
Analysts believe the temporary waiver is unlikely to trigger substantial purchases by major Asian refiners, which are already well supplied, meaning independent Chinese refiners are expected to remain the primary buyers of Iranian crude in the near term.