Unofficial estimates suggest that recent attacks on Iran’s gas infrastructure may have disrupted approximately 200 million cubic meters per day (mcm/d) of Iran’s gas production capacity. While Iranian gas officials say part of the lost capacity has already been restored and recovery efforts are ongoing, energy experts remain skeptical about a full recovery in the near term.
Energy analyst Morteza Behrouzifar warned that Iran’s winter gas deficit could rise from around 300 mcm/d in previous years to as much as 500 mcm/d during peak demand this winter. He argued that restoring lost production capacity will take considerable time due to sanctions, financial constraints, and technical challenges.
Behrouzifar also stated that gas imports are unlikely to provide a meaningful solution, given Iran’s limited import capacity and the economic and geopolitical obstacles facing proposed imports from Russia. Instead, he suggested increasing the use of liquid fuels in power plants and industries during the winter months to help offset part of the expected gas shortfall.