India and other oil-importing countries that are dependent on energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are likely to negotiate bilaterally to secure imports via coordinated transit corridors, Moody’s Ratings has estimated. The credit rating agency also predicted that a return to pre-war traffic volumes is unlikely this year.
The full reopening of the Strait, which accounted for one-fifth of the global energy supplies before the war, has been delayed by the deadlock between the US and Iran.
Amid bleak prospects of a swift and durable settlement, Moody’s said the transit flows will gradually improve, but through bilateral channels rather than a general reopening. Its report on geopolitical risks suggests that the process will be slow, opaque, and subject to interruption.
“We expect oil importers — particularly China, India, Japan and Korea — to negotiate passage bilaterally with Iran, potentially through coordinated transit corridors such as those reportedly emerging near Larak Island and through Omani territorial waters… A return to pre-conflict traffic volumes in 2026 is unlikely,” it said, as quoted by news agency PTI.
Moody’s said even if safe passage in the Strait were to resume in the next six months, oil supply would remain constrained, with persistently higher and more volatile energy prices and broader knock-on effects.
The disruption to shipping through the Strait has become a structural supply constraint to global energy flows rather than a temporary supply shock, Moody’s said, adding that it expects the disruptions to continue through autumn, alongside occasional oil price fluctuations outside the $90-110 range for the rest of the year.
The US and Iran are also at odds over the framework guiding maritime traffic along the Strait. Tehran has established an agency for toll collection, whereas Washington has pushed for freedom of navigation and restoring the status quo.