Crude Oil Price Movements
In April, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $7.57/b, m-o-m, to average $108.79/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased in April by $2.86/b, m-o-m, to average $102.46/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $7.67/b, m-o-m, to average $98.67/b. The GME Oman front- month contract dropped by $20.65/b, m-o-m, to $103.91/b. The Brent-WTI futures spread dropped by $4.81/b, m-o-m, to average $3.79/b in April. The forward curves of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI steepened further in April, indicating the nearest futures contracts moving into stronger backwardation. The forward curve for GME Oman flattened in April, but remained in strong backwardation amid disruptions to sour crude supplies.
World Economy
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecasts remain at 2.2% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027. In the Eurozone, the 2026 economic growth forecast is revised slightly down to 1.1% but remains at 1.2% for 2027. Japan’s 2026 economic growth forecast is revised slightly down to 0.8% but remains at 0.9% for 2027. The 2026 economic growth forecast for China is revised slightly up to 4.6% but remains at 4.5% for 2027. India’s economic growth forecast remains at 6.6% for 2026, and at 6.5% for 2027. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027. Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand is forecast to grow by a healthy 1.2 mb/d in 2026, y-o-y. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.1 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.5 mb/d, y-o-y, showing an upward revision of about 0.2 mb/d from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina. In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, also unchanged from last month’s assessment, driven mainly by Qatar, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to increase by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average about 8.8 mb/d. Additional growth of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, is forecast for 2027, to average about 8.9 mb/d. In April, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 1.74 mb/d, m-o-m, to average about 33.19 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped in the Northern hemisphere, pressured by higher feedstock prices and a recovery in European refinery runs and product output. On the US Gulf Coast (USGC), margins declined but retained most of the gains registered in the previous month. The weakness emerged from the middle and bottom sections of the barrel and was most pronounced with jet/kerosene. In Rotterdam, margins declined by double digits, with sizeable losses across the barrel. In contrast, margins in Singapore increased amid lower refinery utilization rates due to limited crude availability. These dynamics tightened regional product balance, putting substantial upward pressure on all key product crack spreads in Southeast Asia, m-o-m.
Tanker Market
In April, trade disruptions continued to impact dirty tanker spot freight rates. Although price assessments on Middle East routes remained elevated amid limited activity and high uncertainty, VLCC spot freight rates elsewhere declined from the previous month’s record highs. On the West Africa-to-East route, VLCC spot freight rates were down 26%, m-o-m, but were still 129% higher than the same month last year. The decline from the previous month came as trade flow disruptions reduced tanker demand on key routes, boosting availability in the more active regions. A similar dynamic caused Suezmax spot freight rates to moderate from the previous month’s elevated levels. On the USGC-to-Europe route, rates fell 23%, m-o-m. Aframax spot freight rates around the Mediterranean declined by 17%, reversing much of the previous month’s gains, but edged higher on other monitored routes. Clean tanker spot freight rates strengthened further, amid trade flow disruptions and the need to source alternative supplies. Cleans spot freight rates on the Singapore-to-East route rose by 36%, m-o-m, while rates around the Mediterranean were up 21% over the same period.
Crude and Refined Product Trade
In April, US crude imports fell to a five-month low, averaging just 5.8 mb/d, amid declines from the Middle East and Latin America. US crude exports registered a record high, estimated at 5.3 mb/d based on weekly data, amid higher flows to Japan and South Korea. US product exports in April averaged 7.7 mb/d, a record high driven by a strong increase in distillate fuel oil. In March, OECD Europe crude imports declined, m-o-m, according to preliminary estimates. This was due to lower flows from the US, partly offset by increases from Canada and Mexico. Product imports dropped, m-o-m, as declines in jet/kerosene and LPG outpaced higher gasoil flows. Product exports from OECD Europe rose, m-o-m, on higher gasoline flows, despite a decline in
naphtha outflows. In Japan, crude imports fell to an eight-month low in March, while product imports dropped to the lowest level since 2017, led by LPG, with additional declines from naphtha and jet fuel. Product exports from Japan declined to a seven-month low, amid reduced gasoil and gasoline outflows. China’s crude oil imports in March fell from the previous month’s elevated levels to an average of 11.8 mb/d, despite continued strong inflows of discounted crude. Product imports into China fell below 2 mb/d for the first time in a year, amid lower naphtha inflows. Despite government moves to limit product exports, outflows increased to 1.1 mb/d, although declines are expected in April. In India, crude imports fell to an eight-month low of 4.5 mb/d in March, due to trade flow disruptions and despite a temporary suspension of sanctions. M-o-m, crude imports into India declined by 775 tb/d or almost 15%. Product imports into India fell to the lowest level since 2018 due to a sharp drop in LPG, which India primarily sources from the Middle East.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary March 2026 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories decreased by 21.6 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,774 mb. At this level, OECD commercial stocks were 25.0 mb higher, y-o-y, and 8.3 mb above the latest five-year average, but 139.9 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks increased by 26.8 mb while product stocks decreased by 48.4 mb, m-o-m. OECD commercial crude oil stocks stood at 1,348 mb. This was 10.1 mb higher, y-o-y, but 15.3 mb below the latest five-year average and 114.6 mb below the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,426 mb in March. This was 14.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 23.6 mb above the latest five-year average, but 25.3 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 1 day, m-o-m, in March, to 61 days. This was 0.8 days higher than in March 2025, but 0.2 days below the latest five-year average and 1.4 days below the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
The demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) in 2026 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment to 42.7 mb/d, which is about 0.4 mb/d higher than 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment to stand at43.6 mb/d, which is about 0.8 mb/d higher than the 2026 forecast.