Goldman Sachs has projected a significant decline in global oil prices in 2026, citing expectations of a sustained supply surplus and slower demand growth.
In its base-case forecast, the investment bank expects Brent crude to average around $56 per barrel in 2026, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is forecast to average approximately $52 per barrel. The outlook reflects Goldman’s view that global oil markets will remain oversupplied as new production comes online and OPEC+ gradually unwinds production cuts.
According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the projected surplus could reach around 2 million barrels per day through 2026. Rising output from non-OPEC producers, combined with weaker-than-expected global demand growth, is expected to exert downward pressure on prices.
Goldman also warned that under more adverse conditions — such as a sharper global economic slowdown or a faster-than-expected removal of OPEC+ output restrictions — Brent crude prices could fall into the low $50s or even below $50 per barrel by late 2026. In a more extreme downside scenario, prices could drop into the $40 range, though the bank does not view this as its central case.
Despite the bearish near-term outlook, Goldman Sachs maintains a more constructive long-term view. Analysts expect the oil market to tighten again after 2026 as years of underinvestment constrain future supply growth. Under this scenario, Brent crude prices could recover toward $80 per barrel by the latter part of the decade.
Oil prices have remained volatile in recent years, influenced by geopolitical tensions, shifting OPEC+ policies, and uncertainty surrounding global economic growth. Goldman Sachs emphasized that while the 2026 forecast reflects current fundamentals, changes in supply discipline or demand trends could alter the trajectory.