The International Energy Agency (IEA) now projects that global oil and gas demand will continue rising until 2050, marking a shift from its earlier forecasts of a rapid clean energy transition.
In its World Energy Outlook 2025, the IEA’s “current policies” scenario—based on existing, not aspirational, climate policies—foresees oil demand reaching 113 million barrels per day by 2050, a 13% increase from 2024.
The agency predicts total energy demand will grow 15% by 2035, largely driven by expanding data centers and AI-related power use. LNG capacity is set to surge 50% by 2030, reaching over 1,000 bcm annually by 2050.
The IEA dropped its “pledges scenario” this year, citing insufficient national climate plans for 2031–2035. It also warns that global temperatures are on track to exceed the 1.5°C target from the Paris Agreement, unless large-scale carbon removal technologies are deployed.