Iranian oil exports have eased in August compared with July but still averaged 1.63 million barrels per day over the first seven months of 2025 — above last year’s level despite ongoing US sanctions and the geopolitical tensions that triggered a 12-day conflict with Israel in late June.
Shipping data from analytics firm Kpler shows oil exports, excluding condensate, averaging 1.34 million b/d during the first 28 days of August, down from 1.62 million b/d a month earlier. The number could still change substantially once the remaining loadings for the month are accounted for.
In August, Iran exported around 260,000 b/d of crude directly to China, while around 1.06 million b/d was shipped to unspecified destinations. That implies volumes may have been rerouted through third countries before reaching China’s independent refineries — known as “teapots” — or placed into floating storage nearby.
The three-month average for Iranian oil exports for the period from May to July stood at 1.64 million b/d, slightly down from 1.66 million b/d for the three-month period from February to April but above last year’s 12-month average of 1.56 million b/d, according to Kpler.
Iran’s crude exports averaged around 1.2 million b/d in the first half of August, a level that roughly matched mid-August 2024 levels, according to shipping analytics firm Vortexa’s director of maritime risk and intelligence, Claire Jungman.
“Despite August 2024 ultimately closing higher, this mid-month parity underscores the resilience of Iranian flows amid sanctions,” Jungman wrote on Aug. 20.
“Flows remain a stable component of global balances, yet current Venezuelan weakness and Iran’s fluctuations show that sanctions continue to exert pressure,” she said.
China has remained the sole buyer of Iranian crude. The Asian giant sharply increased its intake in June, importing 1.44 million b/d that month, according to Vortexa.
The surge came as Israel’s intensive bombing campaign against Iran raised fears that Tehran’s main export hub at Kharg Island could be targeted. Traders rushed to lock in cargoes, betting that escalating tensions — and the subsequent conflict — would bolster Chinese demand for discounted Iranian barrels.
But imports dropped back in July, plunging by 480,000 b/d to 960,000 b/d, Vortexa said. Both Vortexa and Kpler data suggest a strong rebound in August, with Chinese imports of Iranian crude rising again.
Iran’s true export volumes remain hard to pin down under ongoing US sanctions — further tightened by President Donald Trump’s administration — and Tehran’s elaborate efforts to obscure shipments, many overseen by the powerful Revolutionary Guard.
What is clear, however, is that Iran has kept exports at elevated levels so far this year, even as Washington has ratcheted up penalties on entities involved in Iranian oil sales since January — most recently on Aug. 21 — and as conflict with Israel has escalated.
More sanctions might be looming after France, Germany and the UK on Thursday triggered the “snapback” of UN sanctions against Iran. Based on “clear factual evidence,” the so-called E3 said it believed Tehran to be in significant nonperformance of its commitments under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Friday rejected efforts by the E3 to reinstate UN sanctions lifted under Security Council Resolution 2231, calling the move “invalid and ineffective.”
“I don't think [there is] much direct impact, as the sanctions mostly relate to nuclear and weapons, and the EU was hardly dealing with Iran in oil anyway,” Robin Mills, CEO at Dubai-based Qamar Energy, told Energy Intelligence. “It’s more pressure in general, but I don't think anything significantly different in oil.”