On June 12, Brent crude soared over 11% to around $74/bbl after Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities, raising fears of regional escalation and supply disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz.
The surge on June 13 marked the largest intraday oil move since March 2022, with WTI near $73 and Brent around $74.4.
Analysts warn that unless conflict erupts, oil may retreat once tensions ease, potentially settling in the mid‑$60s to even $55 by year-end. However, a broader Middle East war could push prices above $100/bbl.
Persistent geopolitical risk has ignited a snap rally in oil prices, but underlying fundamentals—sluggish demand, rising inventory, and easing trade concerns—suggest a bearish longer-term trajectory unless the conflict escalates further.