The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has once again lowered its forecast for oil prices in 2025 and 2026 as increased production from Opec+ and US-led tariffs continue to weigh on global markets.
Noting that output growth will continue to outpace rises in demand, the EIA’s outlook for Brent spot prices fell $6 from last month to $62 per barrel for the second half of 2025, the agency said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, it expects 2026 spot prices to fall another $2 to $59 per barrel.
Global liquid fuels production will increase by between 1.3 million and 1.4 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, led by supply growth in non-Opec+ nations, the EIA said.
Meanwhile, oil demand is expected to grow by 1 million bpd in both 2025 and 2026, according to the EIA’s latest projection. The 2025 figure rose by 100,000 bpd from April’s report, while the 2026 prediction remained the same.
The agency noted its forecast was produced before Opec+ announced, this past weekend, that it would raise production further in June.
“Although we expect Opec+ to increase production somewhat in the coming months, we expect Opec+ production to remain below the current target path,” the EIA said.
However, the agency projected a third quarter average of $4.20 as the US continues to export more liquefied natural gas.