The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF or Forum) ‘Monthly Gas Market Report (MGMR)’ is a monthly publication of the GECF focusing on short-term developments in the global gas market related to the global economy, gas consumption, gas production, gas trade (pipeline gas and LNG), gas storage and energy prices.
The highlights of October report are as follows:
Global economy:
Global GDP growth for 2024 has been revised down to 3.1%. In the US, the GDP growth forecast remains steady at 2.7%, while projections for the Euro area and China hold firm at 0.8% and 4.8%, respectively. Looking ahead, global economic growth is expected to hold steady at 3.2% in 2025. Additionally, global inflation continues to ease, with average rates forecasted at 4.4% for 2024 and 3.3% for 2025.
Gas consumption:
The projected growth of global gas consumption for the year 2024 has been revised up to 2.2%. In September 2024, the EU gas consumption recorded a 3.3% y-o-y increase to reach 19 bcm, following seven consecutive months of decline. This rise was primarily driven by industrial and residential sectors. Similarly, US gas consumption increased by 1.6% y-o-y to 67.4 bcm. In August 2024, China’s apparent gas demand rose by 9.6% y-o y to reach 36.3 bcm, driven by increased consumption by LNG-fuelled trucks and gas-fired power generation for cooling amidst prolonged hot weather, especially in eastern and south-eastern regions of China.
Gas production:
The projected growth of the global gas production in 2024 has been revised up to 2.4%. In September 2024, US gas production continued its downward trend to stand at 87.7 bcm, representing a 0.9% y-o-y decline, reflecting the combined effect of the Hurricane Helene on Gulf of Mexico production, along with production cuts in response to low Henry Hub prices. In August 2024, Europe’s gas production rose by 2.5% y-o-y to stand at 15 bcm, mainly driven by the surge in the Norwegian output along with the production ramp up in Türkiye, which overcame the declines in respective British and Dutch outputs. In Asia Pacific, Chinese production y-o-y growth reached 10.6%, driven by multiple new fields coming on stream. In Argentina, the Fenix offshore gas field began production, with a target output of 3.7 bcma.
Gas trade:
From January to September 2024, global LNG imports rose to 306.8 Mt, a 1.7% y-o-y gain, with the Asia Pacific region driving the momentum and offsetting Europe's decline. Specifically, in September 2024, global LNG imports soared by 8.9% y-o-y to reach 33.7 Mt, marking the strongest y-o-y growth since November 2022. This surge was fuelled by robust demand in the Asia Pacific region, which balanced out a decline in European imports, aided by a favourable price spread between the two markets. Northeast Asia, particularly China, saw a boost in LNG imports due to increased gas demand and pre-winter restocking. In contrast, Europe's LNG imports fell, pressured by high storage levels, strong pipeline gas supplies and the inter-basin arbitrage. On the infrastructure front, September witnessed Mexico’s Fast FLNG 1 facility exporting its first full LNG cargo, while China’s Chaozhou and Huizhou regasification terminals became operational.
Gas storage:
Gas restocking continued in all major regions in September 2024, in anticipation of the upcoming winter season in the northern hemisphere. In the EU, the monthly average volume of gas in storage increased to 98 bcm, which represents an average regional capacity of 94%. In the US, despite a slowdown of gas injections, the average gas storage level increased to 98 bcm, or 73% of the country’s capacity. In Asia, the combined volume of LNG in storage in Japan and South Korea was estimated at 14 bcm.
Energy prices:
In September, natural gas prices in Europe and Asia experienced a decline, following a two-month rise. The TTF spot price monthly average was $11.75/MMBtu, reflecting a 4% m-o-m decrease, while the NEA average spot LNG price was $13.09/MMBtu, down by 1% m-o-m. Meanwhile, in the US, Henry Hub prices rose to average $2.26/MMBtu, marking a 14% m-o-m increase. Looking ahead, spot prices are expected to be supported by rising gas demand due to anticipated below-normal temperatures in Europe, and the replenishment of LNG inventories by Asian buyers ahead of the winter season