Iran's exports of crude oil grew by roughly 50% last year to a five-year high of about 1.29 million barrels per day, with the vast majority going to China, helping to prevent a sharp increase in prices triggered by conflict in the Middle East.
Iran produced 2.99 million barrels of oil daily last year, 440,000 barrels more than in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency, which predicts a further rise of 160,000 barrels in 2024.
This increase is expected to contribute to a less tight market, alongside increases by the U.S. and Brazil. The IEA sees global supply rising by 1.5 million barrels per day to an all-time high this year. The Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security forecasts the supply-demand balance flipping from a shortfall of 110,000 barrels per day last year to a 600,000-barrel surplus in 2024.
Brisk Chinese demand is encouraging Iran to ramp up production. Roughly 90% of Iran's crude oil exports went to China, data from European research firm Kpler shows.
