The BRICS Ambassador at large, Anil Sooklal, has stated that a further 20 countries, in addition to the recently proposed six new members invited earlier this year, have applied to join the BRICS group. When discussing South Africa’s current Presidency of the BRICS, he stated in late November that “Over 20 countries have formally applied to join BRICS, while the same number have expressed interest. This is affirmation that BRICS is playing an important role in championing emerging and developing economies. There are a large number of interested parties and these will be dealt with by the respective Foreign Ministers.”
At present, the BRICS includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, while Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to join from the coming January 1st.
Argentina was also invited to join however with a recent change in the political regime is now expected to decline. The five current members of BRICS are responsible for 37% of all global trade.
In terms of the 20 new candidates, what will be attractive to many is the fact that the BRICS does not insist upon formal trade negotiations and the permanent imposition of tariff reductions. Rather than a defined tariff reduction regime, the BRICS has a far looser approach. This removes political barriers that include insistence on market and political reforms, which is more of a Western approach, and also means that tariff reductions and trade development enhancements can be implemented on an as-need basis. These are fundamental points of interests to emerging economies who may otherwise struggle to compete with cheap imports. It also allows more autocratic regimes to participate without the need to introduce unwelcome reforms that may not be considered in their national interest. Most of the 20 applicants have not been publicly identified, however they are likely to include the following.
Afghanistan, Algeria, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Thailand, Turkiye, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Venezuela
Additional candidates are also likely to include Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Chile, Peru, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Vietnam, Cameroon, DR Congo, Kenya and Tanzania among others.
At first glance this may appear a disparate and disjointed group with little in common. Yet this is part of the appeal. In the West, trade partner economies are typically viewed in terms of economic capability, and their immediate usefulness (or otherwise) to Western economies. Emerging economies that show promise are often ‘encouraged’ to embark on political and economic reforms to ‘bring them to international standards’. What has become apparent is that this tends to mean ‘Western benefits’ take precedence over these economies. That has included inadvisable World Bank loans, and the imposition of US dollar and Euro trade at the expense of their sovereign currencies.
In gathering together the ‘developing’ or ‘emerging’ economies, the BRICS have taken a bet on the future. While some potential members may fall into future difficulties created by regional conflicts, most will not. Absorbing these new members will take time – but could be completed by 2030.
Closer examination also reveals that many of the 20 listed above are significant economies, often amongst the leading players within their own respective trade blocs. These include the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA), Latin America’s Mercosur, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and ASEAN, amongst others. Having BRICS members inserted into these regional blocs significantly enhances the BRICS own reach and influence within them. By comparison, the European Union appears strictly rigid in its approach. It resembles a closed market rather than an open one. In this way, the BRICS can be seen as an antidote to the previously over-regulated Western trade group systems, where trade negotiations are measured in decades and political conditions imposed in return for Western market access.
What is happening instead is far more revolutionary, and is leading to a rather more considered, and inclusive multi-lateral approach. The BRICS movement is developing more as a trade philosophy than a specific bloc – and will pave the way ahead in terms of global trade flows well into the coming decades.