The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in a report examines the developments in the oil market after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This report, published on June 8 (4 days ago), can answer many questions about oil market developments.
Of course, it should be noted that the statistics provided on Iran’s oil production and exports are not definitive and accurate, because after the US sanctions, Iran refuses to provide official statistics.
* Russia’s oil exports increased slightly after the conflict with Ukraine
Russia’s oil exports are shown in Figure 1, according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. According to the report, after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war “In February 2022 Russia’s oil exports are maintained at more than 5 million barrels per day.
A review of Russian oil exports shows that Iran’s oil exports first fell below 5 million barrels per day in February and reached 5.5 million barrels per day in the coming months due to the Russian easing policy. As a result, Russia’s oil exports have not declined in the least since the war with Ukraine and Western oil sanctions.
Figure 1
Interestingly, the increase in Russian oil exports has taken place by sea with the tanker fleet, and the amount of exports through the pipeline has remained almost constant (In all pictures, pay attention to the date after February 2022).
Reduction of 350,000 barrels of Russian oil exports to Europe
Figure 2 shows the amount of Russian crude oil exports to Europe. According to the picture, after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia’s oil exports to Europe decreased by about 300 to 400 thousand barrels per day. This decrease in exports was related to maritime exports, not through the pipeline.
Figure 2
* Russian oil exports to India increased by 700,000 barrels per day
Figure 3 shows the volume of Russian oil exports to India and China. According to the picture, Russia’s oil exports to China have not changed significantly, but oil exports to India have increased by 700,000 barrels per day.
Figure 3
* India is the main export destination of Russian Ural oil
Figure 4 shows the export destinations of Russian Ural oil. Ural oil is very similar to Iranian heavy oil.
According to India, Italy and Turkey first increased Russia’s imports of Ural oil in the months following the start of the war, and then declined. India imported 900,000 barrels of Ural oil per day in April, up from 300,000 barrels per day in June.
Figure 4
* Reduction of one million barrels of Russian oil production
According to Figure 5, Russia’s crude oil production has dropped by about one million barrels per day from 10 million barrels per day to 9 million barrels per day after the oil embargo and the withdrawal of Western companies.
Figure 5
* Iran’s oil production will increase to 2.75 million barrels per day by the end of 2022
As shown in Figure 6, Iran’s oil production has increased since February 2022, coinciding with the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, and is expected to maintain its upward trend.
According to tanker trackers, Iran’s oil exports in April (the last reported month) were about 1.1 million barrels per day, and according to the Kepler Institute, this number was about 800,000 barrels per day in April.
According to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Iran’s oil production will increase from 2.5 million barrels per day to about 2.75 million barrels per day by the end of 2022.
Figure 6
* The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies rejects the replacement of Russian oil with Iran
By imposing Western oil sanctions on Russian oil, the Russians are seeking to seize other countries’ oil markets by offering special discounts. Figure 7 shows the level of Russian oil risk for the oil market of other oil-exporting countries.
According to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Russian oil has not yet posed a threat to the Iranian oil market. But it is possible that in the long run 50 to 150 thousand barrels of the Iranian oil market will be affected by the threat of the Russians.
According to the report, so far Russia has been a threat to the US oil market and the oil market of OPEC member countries.
Figure 7
* 5 key points from the Oxford Institute’s oil report
In total, according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, after the Russia-Ukraine war and the imposition of Western oil sanctions:
1. Russia’s oil exports have also increased to 500,000 barrels per day.
2. The main destination for the increase in Russian oil exports is India, and exports to China have not changed significantly.
3. With the departure of European companies, Russia’s oil production has dropped by about one million barrels per day.
4. Iran’s oil exports are estimated at between 0.8 and 1.1 million barrels per day, and oil production will increase.
5. So far, Russian oil has not replaced the country’s oil in any of Iran’s oil markets.