Saudi Arabia is apparently floating the notion of mediating between Iran and the United States. First reported by CNN, Tehran has dismissed the idea as “speculation”—but that has not stopped the Iranian press from discussing what Saudi intervention could entail, and what Riyadh may gain by brokering talks.
Speaking to Amwaj.media on condition of anonymity, a high-ranking Iranian political source expressed “a positive feeling” about the Kingdom potentially playing a constructive role in enabling engagement with the Donald Trump administration. Addressing the reasons for his positivity towards such a scenario—mindful of how other Persian Gulf states have more established records of facilitating dialogue with Washington—the source indicated Trump’s close relationship with Riyadh.
However, there is also considerable Iranian skepticism of a Saudi role in mediating with the US. Preferring that his name be withheld given the sensitivity of the matter, a second senior Iranian political source characterized a decision by Saudi Arabia to publicly float a mediation role as mainly about sending a message to Trump about its usefulness as an ally, rather than a gambit to supplant the roles of Oman and Qatar as trusted intermediaries.
The speculations about a potential initiative by the Kingdom to promote Iran-US dialogue comes as Qatar’s Emir is set to travel to Tehran. Against this backdrop, informed sources in the region told Amwaj.media that Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani is expected to arrive on Feb. 19 at the head of a senior delegation.
CNN on Feb. 16 reported that it had “learned” that Saudi Arabia “is open to mediating” between the Trump administration and Iran to negotiate a new nuclear deal. The news network said it was “unclear” whether Riyadh had made a formal offer, but attributed the Kingdom’s claimed desire to broker a deal to concerns that Tehran may weaponize its nuclear program as a form of deterrence.The report came ahead of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Feb. 17 trip to Saudi Arabia, where Iran’s Economy Minister Abdolnasser Hemmati was attending the Feb. 16-17 Conference for Emerging Market Economies.
US officials have not commented on the CNN report while Iran has dismissed it. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei told reporters during his weekly press conference on Feb. 17 that the report was “just speculation and we only learned about it from the media.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the same day said that the upcoming visit by Qatar’s Emir is a “bilateral trip” taking place “within the framework of political exchanges between the two countries.” Araghchi added that “as of now, we have not been informed that he is carrying a message from a specific country or organization.”
There is currently no indication that Iran would prefer the mediation of Saudi Arabia with the US over more traditional Arab interlocutors like Oman and Qatar. However, the Islamic Republic may consider Saudi intervention as an opportunity to enhance bilateral relations—in line with Khamenei’s desire to expand relations with neighboring states. At the same time, some voices in Tehran question the dividends of the normalization deal with Riyadh. There have been no apparent economic dividends, and critics also point to what is perceived as more aggressive Saudi posturing in Lebanon and Syria following Hezbollah’s losses and the downfall of former Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad—both key allies of Iran. These dynamics suggest that confidence building is an ongoing endeavor.