The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF or Forum) ‘Monthly Gas Market Report (MGMR)’ is a monthly publication of the GECF focusing on short-term developments in the global gas market related to the global economy, gas consumption, gas production, gas trade (pipeline gas and LNG), gas storage and energy prices.
The highlights of January report are as follows:
Gas consumption:
In December 2024, the EU recorded its fourth consecutive y-o-y increase in gas consumption, rising by 9% to 40 bcm, after seven months of continuous decline. This rise was mainly driven by the residential and electricity sectors, influenced by a cold spell and notably lower wind power output. Similarly, US gas consumption saw a significant y-o-y increase of 5.1%, reaching 93 bcm. In November 2024, China’s apparent gas demand rose by 1.7% y-o-y to 35.6 bcm, driven by increased LNG fuel demand for trucks and higher gas-fired power generation.
Gas production:
In December 2024, US gas production continued its declining trend to stand at 88.6 bcm, representing a 4.1% y-o-y reduction. This decline reflects the combined effect of the Hurricane season on Gulf of Mexico operations and production cuts in response to low Henry Hub prices. In November 2024, Europe’s gas production fell by 2.1% y-o-y to reach 15.9 bcm, primarily due to reduced output from Norway and extended maintenance periods. Gas production in the Asia Pacific region was estimated to have decreased by 0.2% y-o-y, driven by a slower growth rate in Chinese production (3.7% y-o-y) and a reduction in output from several other major Asian gas producers. On the upstream front, Mauritania and Senegal – two GECF member countries – began gas production from their joint Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) offshore project.
Gas trade:
In December 2024, global LNG imports fell for the second consecutive month, declining by 0.3% y-o-y to 38.2 Mt. The decrease was driven by reduced imports in Asia Pacific and Europe, partly offset by stronger inflows into the LAC and MENA regions. Asia Pacific LNG imports saw their only monthly y-o-y drop for 2024, attributed to mild winter weather, ample storage levels, and higher spot LNG prices. Europe's LNG imports, though down y-o-y, reached their highest level since January 2024, while PNG imports slightly increased to reach 13.7 bcm. In terms of infrastructure development, the U.S. Plaquemines LNG facility marked a milestone by exporting its first LNG cargo.
Gas storage:
Gas stocks were depleting in the northern hemisphere regions in December 2024, driven by increasing heating demand. The EU recorded a particularly large withdrawal, with the monthly average volume of gas in storage decreasing to 82 bcm (79% of the regional capacity), compared with 93 bcm a year ago. Net withdrawals commenced by the middle of November in the US, bringing the average gas storage level down to 101 bcm (76% of the country’s capacity), almost the same level as a year ago. In Asia, the combined volume of LNG in storage in Japan and South Korea decreased to 13.8 bcm, which is less than the 14.9 bcm in storage at the same stage last year.
Energy prices:
European gas and LNG spot prices held steady compared to the previous month, while Asian LNG prices experienced a slight increase in December 2024. The TTF spot price averaged $13.82/MMBtu, while the average NEA spot LNG price averaged $14.21/MMBtu, up by 1% m-o-m. Meanwhile, in the US, the Henry Hub spot price averaged $3.01/MMBtu, increasing significantly by 38% m-o-m. Looking ahead, weather conditions are expected to remain a critical factor influencing spot prices, with any cold snaps likely to exert additional upward pressure.