The OPEC ‘Monthly Oil Market Report’ is a monthly publication of the OPEC Secretariat focusing on short-term developments in the global oil market related to the global economy, oil price, oil consumption, oil production, oil and oil products trade and tanker market.
The highlights of January report are as follows:
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rose by 9¢, or 0.1%, m-o-m, to average $73.07/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract fell by 27¢, or 0.4%, to average $73.13/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by 16¢, or 0.2%, to average $69.70/b. The GME Oman front-month contract increased by 68¢, or 0.9%, to average $73.16/b. The ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI first-month spread contracted, m-o-m, falling by 43¢ to average $3.43/b. The forward curves of oil futures prices strengthened, particularly for NYMEX WTI and GME Oman, with near-month time spreads shifting into a wider backwardation, reflecting a more optimistic outlook. The market sentiment of hedge funds and other money managers turned positive, leading to the closing of a large volume of NYMEX WTI-related short positions.
World Economy
Global economic growth is forecast to grow at 3.1% in 2025, accelerating slightly to 3.2% in 2026. This positive outlook is underpinned by anticipated inflation normalization and corresponding adjustments to monetary policies in major economies. The services sector is expected to remain the main driver of growth, supported by a gradual rebound in industrial production. For the US, the economic growth forecast in 2025 is revised upward to 2.4%, with 2026 forecast at 2.3%. In the Eurozone, the economic growth forecast for 2025 is revised slightly down to 1%, before rising to 1.1% in 2026. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2025 remains at 1% and is projected to see similar growth in 2026. China’s economic growth forecast for 2025 remains at 4.7%, with the economic growth forecast for 2026 at 4.6%. India’s economic growth forecast is revised up to 6.5% for 2025 and also expected to expand at the same level in 2026. Brazil’s economic growth forecast for 2025 is revised up to 2.3% and is expected to rise further to 2.5% in 2026. Russia’s economic growth forecast for 2025 is revised up to 1.9% and is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2026.
World Oil Demand
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 1.4 mb/d. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d. This robust oil demand growth is expected to continue in 2026. The global oil demand in 2026 is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e. liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) in 2025 is forecast to grow by 1.1 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. The non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2026 is also forecast to grow by at 1.1 mb/d, mainly driven by the US, Brazil and Canada. Meanwhile, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by about 90 tb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, to average 8.4 mb/d, followed by an increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026 to average 8.5 mb/d. Crude oil production by the countries participating in the DoC dropped by 14 tb/d in December, m-o-m, averaging about 40.65 mb/d, as reported by available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In December, refinery margins dropped in the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Singapore. Weakness was seen across the barrel, except for jet/kerosene on the USGC and gasoline (92) in Singapore, as healthy refinery runs led to rising product availability while weak export incentives added to the pressure. However, in Rotterdam, refining margins extended their upward trajectory amid improved travel activities during the year- end holiday season, with gasoline, gasoil, and fuel oil (1.0% sulphur) backing the monthly gain. Global refinery intake increased further adding 1.1 mb/d, m-o-m, as offline capacities trended significantly lower in December, in line with historic data. Global intake reached an average of 82.2 mb/d in December, and was up slightly by 100 tb/d, y-o-y.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates showed diverse movements in the last month of the year, falling on routes to Asia and out of the Middle East, while strengthening in the Atlantic Basin and Mediterranean. On the Middle East-to- East route, VLCC spot freight rates fell by 18%, m-o-m, in December, while rates on the West Africa-to-East route dropped by 11%. In the Suezmax market, rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route partially regained the previous month’s loss, up 9%, m-o-m. Aframax spot rates experienced gains on all monitored routes, except Indonesia to East, which saw a drop of 10%, m-o-m. The Caribbean-to-US East Coast route erased most of the previous month’s sharp loss, with a jump of 42% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, East of Suez rates edged up 1%, m-o-m, on average, while West of Suez rates showed a strong performance, gaining 20%, m-o-m.
Crude and Refined Product Trade
Available data for December shows US crude imports dropping, m-o-m, to average at a still robust level of 6.5 mb/d. US crude exports came in just below 4 mb/d. US product imports averaged 1.7 mb/d, while exports hit a record high of 7.01 mb/d, according to estimates based on weekly data. Preliminary estimates for OECD Europe indicate crude imports in December were lower both m-o-m and y-o-y, as higher inflows from South America were outpaced by declines in imports from Africa. OECD Europe product exports recovered from the sharp decline seen in September and October, following higher flows to North America. In November, Japan’s crude imports rose by 11%, m-o-m, recovering from a weak performance in the previous month. Japan’s product imports marked a 10-month high, following a rise of 12%, m-o-m, as gains in naphtha, LPG and kerosene outweighed lower gasoline imports. Crude imports into China showed a sharp improvement, surging to a 13-month high of 11.8 mb/d in November. Product imports into China fell to a nine-month low, while gains in product exports outpaced the previous month’s sharp decline to register a five-month high. India’s crude imports were unchanged, m-o-m, in November, averaging 4.7 mb/d, representing a 3% increase, y-o-y. India’s product exports partially recovered from the previous month’s decline, gaining almost 9% in November. Product imports were up by 3%.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2024 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks down by 8.4 mb, m-o-m. At 2,770 mb, they were 171 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Among the components, crude and products stocks fell by 3.1 mb, and 5.2 mb, m-o-m, respectively. OECD commercial crude stocks stood at 1,313 mb, which is 137 mb less than the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,457 mb, about 34 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 day, m-o-m, in November, to stand at 60.9 days, which is 1.3 days below the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for DoC crude (i.e. crude from countries participating in the DoC) in 2025 is revised down by around 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly due to changes in 2024 historical baseline data, to stand at 42.5 mb/d, around 0.3 mb/d higher than the estimate for 2024. It is worth highlighting again that growths in the global oil demand and non-DoC supply in 2025 remain unchanged as compared to last month. For 2026, demand for DoC crude is expected to reach 42.7 mb/d, around 0.2 mb/d higher than in 2025.