The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast potential refinery capacity increases over the next few years as demand continues to grow.
In 2023, global refining capacity was estimated at 103.5 million barrels per day (bpd). There is increased interest in how much refinery capacity may enter service within the next few years to meet rising demand.
The EIA analysis looks at several major refinery investments with plans to enter service through 2028, their collective refined product output, and their meaning for global crude oil and refined product trade. The bulk of planned growth in refined product output is in the Asia-Pacific (mostly China and India) and the Middle East. It estimates that between 2.6 million barrels b/d and 4.9 million b/d of refining capacity will come online over 2024–28.
The EIA analysis discusses only projects with reasonable expectations of coming online within the next four years, based on project announcements. Because of the inherent uncertainty of all refinery projects, it estimates a wide range of capacity could enter service by 2028. Refinery projects are regularly delayed because of financing, crude oil supply agreements, logistics, unit testing, stockpiling operational inventories, and other factors that complicate the start-up of new facilities.
The full report is available at:
https://www.eia.gov/analysis/globalrefining/outlookglobalrefining.pdf