Iranian Oil potentially returning legitimately to the market will not be a shock and a complete return will not take place at least until the summer of next year, Goldman Sachs says, as the U.S. is taking part in indirect talks about the so-called Iran nuclear deal.
“With OPEC+ appearing to manage its exit for now, supply concerns will likely shift to the potential return of Iran to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) agreement,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note on Monday.
According to Goldman Sachs, reaching an agreement that could lead to the U.S. potentially lifting the sanctions on Iran’s oil will likely take months. During that time, the OPEC+ group will monitor these events and will, if needed, tweak policies to accommodate Iranian supply, the investment bank says.
Goldman Sachs anticipates strong demand that would require OPEC+ putting another 2 million barrels per day (bpd) on the market in the third quarter, after the around 2 million bpd that the alliance and Saudi Arabia decided to return between May and July.