GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050

12 February, 2020
Source: The Peninsula

• Population growth and economic growth will drive energy demand.

• Natural gas continues to receive positive policy support in several countries as an alternative to polluting and carbon-intensive fuels and a flexible option complementing intermittent renewables.

• Natural gas is set to be responsible for the lowest share in global CO2 emissions by 2050 (27%) despite its highest contribution to the primary energy mix (31%)

• Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix and will amount to 71% in 2050, against 81% in 2018. Oil will remain an important source of energy, but its share is expected to fall to 26%. Coal will drop sharply, providing only 18%. Natural gas will be the only hydrocarbon resource to increase its share, from 23% today to 27% in 2050.

• Natural gas, the fastest growing fossil fuel, is projected to rise by 1.3% per annum from 3924 bcm in 2018 to 5966 bcm by 2050 driven by environmental concerns, air quality issues, coal-to-gas switching as well as economic and population growth.

• The power generation (1.7% per annum) and industrial (1.2% per annum) sectors will be the biggest contributors, accounting for about 66% of additional gas demand volumes to 2050.

• Gas production will rise by 1.3% per annum to 2050, with North America accounting for the largest share of this growth, followed by Eurasia, Africa and the Middle East.

• Production from unconventional resources will become increasingly important, and their share of overall output is expected to rise from 25% to 38% by 2050.

• Gas production in GECF countries will grow by almost 50% by 2050 to over 2.5 tcm, underlining the continued importance of the group.

• Growth in LNG trade is the main driving force and will exceed total pipeline

• Trade by 2050, whereas in 2018 it was only just over half pipeline trade.
• LNG sector is expected to grow at 2.9% to 1077 bcm by 2050, while pipeline trade will expand more slowly at a rate of 1.2% per annum to reach 1063 bcm by 2050.

• LNG liquefaction capacity is set for a period of rapid growth, doubling by 2050, with many projects scheduled to come on stream in the next 7 to 10 years.

• The USA, Australia, Qatar, Russia and Mozambique are projected to lead the growth in export capacity. With over 120 mtpa of liquefaction capacity under construction, and another 260 mtpa planned, the share of LNG exports will rise from the current 37.2% to 45.2% of total exports by 2030, and to 50.3% by 2050.

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